RETIRE RICH - OFWs deserve to retire rich

Thursday, March 19

PSEI gaps down -12.43% at the open


It seemed the word "circuit breaker" is the vogue now on most financial markets around the world.

The PSEI gapped down to -12.4 % (from previous close 5335.37 to 4673.58) at the opening when PSE resumed trading on Thursday after two days it halted trading. The decline again triggered the circuit breaker's 10% decline threshold for the third time this month. The trading halted right after the opening bell and resumed 15 minuted thereafter.

When the trading resumed the index continued plummetting down to 4039.15 level or a staggering -24.29% decline from Monday's closing price. The market recovered slightly from the day's low and closed to 4623.42 level (-13.34% decline).

This week alone the market went down -20%. That's two trading days alone this week---the worst trading week we've seen in recent history. And yet the COVID-19 virus still in the rising trajectory, yet to reach its peak.

So where we will go from here?

On another front, the oil price succumbed to its lowest at USD20 per barrel.

Tuesday, March 17

PSE resumes trading on Thursday, 19 March 2020 on shortened timing


The PSE release another advisory informing the resumption of trading and settlement on Thursday, 19 March 2020.

On Monday, PSE advised the suspension of trading starting today, 17 March 2020 until further notice. It was a move that somehow PSE expected other financial markets might also suspend trading.

But so far, no other market suspends trading and it was expected that PSE will lift the suspension soon. There you go. Trading will resume on Thursday.

On Sunday, PSE also released an advisory regarding the shortened trading hours. On Thursday, the shortened timing will be followed as per today's advisory.

Below is the full text of the advisory:

With reference to Memorandum CN - No. 2020-0021 dated March 16, 2020, please be informed that trading at The Philippine Stock Exchange, Inc. (“PSE”) and clearing and settlement at the Securities Clearing Corporation of the Philippines (“SCCP”) will resume on Thursday, March 19, 2020.
The shortened trading hours to be observed shall be as follows:

9:00 a.m. – Pre-Open
9:30 a.m. – Market Open
12:45 p.m. – Pre-Close
12:50 p.m. – Run-off/Trading-at-Last
1:00 p.m. – Market Close

Further, as prescribed by the national government’s Inter-Agency Task Force on Emerging Infectious Diseases, the PSE trading floor will be closed and will not be accessible by the trading participants. Trading activities by all trading participants will have to be conducted remotely through offsite locations.

For further details on the operational requirements for offsite trading, please refer to Memorandum TPA - No. 2020-0014 dated March 17, 2020 issued by the Exchange.

For your information and guidance.

Monday, March 16

PSE suspends trading starting 17 March 2020 until further notice



PSE to suspend trading from tomorrow, 17 March 2020 until further notice.

In my previous post, I mentioned how the shortened trading hours would affect OFW traders. And I said this will made us more puyat. I visited the PSE website to check any other update before I'll sleep. I found another update that will no longer make us more puyat. The PSE will stop trading!

According to the advisory, the suspension of trading is in "connection with President Rodrigo Duterte's announcement placing the entire Luzon under an enhanced community quarantine."

Check the video out for more info. 

How shortened trading hours affect OFW traders?

Screenshot from PSE advisory.
How shortened trading hours affect OFW traders? Eh di lalong napuyat!

PSE President and CEO Ramon S. Monzon issued a public advisory through a memorandum to shortened the trading hours. The advisory was issued on Sunday, 15 March 2020 consistent with the COVID-19 preventive measures as stated above.

As an OFW, in a time zone, which is 5 hours behind from Philippine time---trading is tougher and more challenging now. Under normal trading hours, I used to get-up at 4:30AM. You know how it feels to wake up during this particular time. Because of the shortened timing, I need to get-up at 3:30AM starting 17 March 2020. This is a must for me if I have an open position to monitor.

So guys alam na this. If you want to trade, you need to sleep early and wake up early or find a strategy na hindi ka mapuyat. You know it's tough doing your day job without enough sleep.

Other OFWs in other parts of the world might not have the chance to catch the trading hours. So yong iba mukhang mapipilitang maging long term investor.

Anyway, good luck to all of us trading OFWs. Try to adjust accordingly and may the odds be with you.

Below is the full text of the advisory.


Thursday, March 12

PSEI down 10.33%, triggers circuit breaker, halts trading

The PSE implemented a 15-minute trading halt on the entire market at around 3pm today, 12 March 2020. 

This is when the PSEi’s decline breached 10.33 percent to 5697.13 (see chart above), activating the circuit breaker introduced in 2008.

This is the first time, I saw a market crash. I learned something about the stock market (PSE) in 2015 only. I was introduced by my friend Don Juan of DCS to a magnificent group called Overseas Filipino Smart Investors (OFSI). Then it was OFSI that introduced me to the stock market and to personal finance in general.

The severity of the decline can be compared to the 2008 financial crisis. The steepest decline during that crisis was on 27 October 2008 (see chart below). I heard about this crisis back then and how it affected the global economy, but I have no idea how the stock market would look like. It must have been blood red. The same happened today.
During the 2008 financial crisis, I have no idea what a stock market is and no stake whatsoever. This time, I had 5 years of experience in the stock market, out of which; 4 years as an investor; 1 year as an active stock trader. I'm very thankful because, despite my limited experience, I was disciplined enough to follow the trading strategies I learned from the Traders Lounge. 

From January to February, the strategies I learned provided several entries but resulted in losses. Minimal losses per trade though. I realized there must be something wrong. In February, I closed all my positions and never traded this March... and boom! There's really wrong. I think we just entered the bear market. I think the worst still has to come, but I hope not. 

I learned that as a trader, you must rely on technicals/chart and forget about or pay less attention to any news. But well, I'd love to read and I like to be abreast of what is going on around.

So in my humble opinion, this crash is somehow inevitable because of the following triggers.
  1. Trade war - The tariff war between the US and China and other countries.
  2. Middle East tension - The confrontation between the US and Iran that could easily escalate.
  3. Bush fires - Amazon, Australia, Lebanon. 
  4. COVID-19 - the virus that was declared a pandemic by the WHO. It affected the global economy.
  5. Saudi vs Russia oil price war - The oil price plummeted to as low as 29 USD per barrel.
Seriously, we really have a lot to worry. At least as a trader, you should not have to worry about red portfolio by closing your position and just be on the side ready to pounce back when an opportunity appears.
Market indices at the end of  12 March 2020 trading day.

Wednesday, March 11

How to earn money stocks trading using bounce play?

The answer is to trade and catch the bounce. But how? Here's how.

In my previous post, I mentioned that this is the time to test strategies that you either developed or learned. In this case, I tried to test, apply and practice the "Fish Ball" strategy, which I learned from Trader's Lounge.

So let me walk you through. Note that this is how I understood from my readings and learnings at Traders Lounge. You may join the FB group, subject to their Admin's approval, read and interpret the strategy yourself. Click this link to go there: https://www.facebook.com/groups/504058690117433/

For the purpose of testing the strategy, I used my Investagrams virtual port.

What are the conditions required for a stock to qualify bounce play?

The following are the steps to screen a stock that has strong probabilities to bounce.
  1. During non-trading hours, open Investagrams.
  2. Look for a stock that's trending/rallied for 3 or more days and then made a sudden drop for one or two days (long red candles) with none or just having a short bottom tail/wick. 
  3. Once you identified this stock put it in your watch list. 
  4. Get ready to trade the bounce during the next trading day. 
For the sake of this example, I screened and found EURO. This stock has been trading earlier for several days and then the price hovered at the top for few days between 3.6 to 4.0 pesos. On 9 March, it crashes down to 2.75 pesos per share. On that day it plots a long red candle with short tail/wick. 

Setting up the "Fish Ball" strategy.

  1. Prior to the market opens. Open Investagrams and open the stock in your watch list. In this example EURO. Set your time frame to 30 min.
  2. Plot Trix indicator and set length to 5.
  3. Plot Fisher indicator and set length to 9.
  4. Entry signal will be when the Fisher blue line crosses above the red line and;
  5. The Trix line is pointing/slanting upward.
  6. Sell signal will be Fisher blue line crosses below the redline. 

In the above example, I entered on 10 March at 2.59 price. Then, I switched to 15 minutes time frame and exited the following day during the time when Fisher blue line crosses below the red line at 2.85 price level.

It was indeed an early exit as I switched to faster time frame. If I did not switch to a shorter time frame, the trade still open because there is no sell signal yet.

Try this strategy and don't forget to thank Traders Lounge -- not me. 

Tuesday, March 10

What to do during bear market as a stocks trader?

My answer is to stop trading.

Maybe my above answer is not for you. It depends on your profile as a stock trader. I consider my self a quickie trader. I do not sit on a stock position for a long time. A swing or a bounce is enough for me. I sell quickly once my favorite progressive support line (a type of moving average indicator) is breached.

So far, whenever I entered a trade on any particular setup, my support line was breached. So, as you can see (above picture), I don't have any position.

I had a total of eight trades for the month of January and February 2020. I lost all eight. Minimal losses on each trade. My trading system/strategy protected me.

As you can see the global financial market is down. Most likely the reasons are the following:
  • Trade War (between China and the US).
  • COVID-19.
  • Saudi Arabia, Russia Oil price war. 
The trade war between China and the US started like two years ago. The trade war somehow made investors and businessmen wary. The global growth slowed if not declined. Early this year, the first phase of the deal was inked between China and the US. The first deal was a good indication that both economic heavyweight can find middle ground. Few markets rebounded, but here comes the second problem -- COVID-19.

COVID-19 was discovered early this year in China. As of this writing it affected more than 100K people and 4000 people died as per WHO website. The virus triggered massive selling last week. 

Still no vaccine and the market still bloody here comes another problem -- the oil price war. Oil price nose dive this week to as low as USD 29.

Well, enough reasons to short sell?
    
In other financial markets where short selling is in place, I might not stop trading. I'm just started to learn trading, and my focus is PSEI. Short selling stocks at PSEI are still not allowed or not yet implemented to say the least. 

With the above being said, It is safe to stop trading and keep the cash. Sometimes the best trade is not to trade at all. The best offense is defense. Like boxing, protect yourself at all times. Protect your capital during market conditions like now. In warfare, retreat and fight another day.

I think this is the time to review trades. Study the mistakes. Fine-tune system. Backtesting strategies. Developing new strategies that suit the market conditions.

As a trader, what do you recommend to do? Share your thoughts in the comment section. It's for free!

Thursday, March 5

Month No. 3 - Save 10 percent from your salary challenge


After a few glitches from BDO, I still able to continue this challenge. I'm now in the third month! What about you?

We need to persevere whatever hindrance that comes on our way just to come up with our end goal. I'm having a hard time in the second month getting the one-time password from BDO. I made a video out of that experience, which you can view by clicking the link here: https://youtu.be/7k4DTJq4sG4

Well, in spite of the problem, I still able to continue. For the February 2020 salary, I have no problems saving 10 percent from it. I was able to access my BDO account smoothly this time. So, on the very same day, I got my salary, I transferred the savings to my COL Financial account (screenshot above).

As an OFW living off from my monthly paycheck, it is essential that I will have even a small amount of money set aside on a monthly basis. In this challenge, I oblige myself to save at least 10 percent. Then I invested the amount to a high dividend-paying stock or preferred stock.



I choose high dividend-paying stock because of the COVID19 virus the entire world is battling made companies stock price plummet. As a quick trader, (this is how I call myself as I hate to sit on a stock for an extended period of time) it seemed to me that the possibility for a stock price of a company to rise is less. So, for now, I opt to stop trading and just watching how the market move.

I still maintain a separate broker account intended for trading and from time to time if an opportunity exists to trade---I trade. In January 2020, I'm 0 wins out of 3 trades. In February 2020, 0 wins out of 5 trades. Damn, I did not do any trade this month so far.

The best thing to do, for me, in this situation is to save more money for capital. So what are you waiting for? Join me and take the "save 10% from your salary challenge". Months pass by so fast and it will never come back! I'm now in the third month. I hope I can continue this challenge until December 2020 to get my goal.

Tuesday, March 3

Month No. 2 Save 10% from salary challenge




I was able to resolve the issue with my BDO one time password problem. So I was able to open my account again and save 10% from January salary.

Above is the video narrating the problem. Next up will be month of February salary.

Hopefully, I will be able to continue till December 2020 on this challenge so that I can buy that something I wanted to buy, which I'm targeting at the first quarter of year 2021.