Retire Rich: 2019

Tuesday, December 31

Happy New Year!

Happy New Year mga Kababayang OFWs!!!

May the New Year bring to you and your family back home the love, and a light to guide you.

As the new year comes with all the happiness and good tidings, hope the joyful spirit keeps glowing in your heart forever.

As this year ends, I wish all the negativity and difficulties also end. May 2020 bring success and desired results for you.

This coming new year, I will be updating frequently this blog with more posts and updates. I will provide updates too of my progress with the"Save 10% from your salary challenge."

What is Trader's Lounge MAMA Strategy?

Rey Tecson Stock Trading ,

In the above video, I shared my own interpretation and execution of Trader's Lounge MAMA Strategy. A trading system that used MACD and ALMA indicators. I discussed the parameters and showed one of my trades using the strategy.

Links to Trader's Lounge YouTube channel, FB group, and website are provided in the video's description for your ready reference so that you will be able to learn the strategy directly from there in case the above video not clear to you.

Anyway, I will be posting more videos of my own trade executions using MAMA strategy. So hit subscribe button on my channel if you want to see those trades.

I lost 30% of my capital after 7 months of PSE stocks trading

Rey Tecson Stock Trading ,

It has been seven months since I embarked on a journey to learn stocks trading in the Philippine Stocks Market. I started this journey in March 2019. I've written my declaration [here]. From the start, I wanted to share this journey with those OFWs who shared the same goal -- to retire rich and go back to the Philippines for good. To those OFWs who wanted to utilize the capital market through stocks trading to achieve the above-mentioned goal.

I may or may not succeed in stocks trading. But I'm stubborn with my goal. I wanted to retire with "something" from "nothing'. I don't want to end up begging from someone for my needs during my retirement days. Not even to my relatives. Not even to my kids.

Stock Trading is just one vehicle to achieve this goal. The main vehicle, of course, is my monthly paycheck as an OFW, which will be gone during retirement. I need sources of income after retirement. It could be a passive or active income in nature. Stock trading could be one, and I'm still learning/searching for other sources of income.

This blog is my journal and documentation of my success or failure in my stock trading journey. If you are an OFW who embarks on the same journey, then join me and let's learn together.

So far, I lost a total of 30% of the capital I allotted to stocks trading. In my own assessment based on the current PSE market conditions, and as a newbie, I'm still happy I survived without wiping out the whole account. What about you? What is your assessment based on your own trading performance in relation to the current market condition? I'm listening to your assessment too. Feel free to comment below.

I would like to thank Traders Lounge, a facebook group I joined. I followed the 8K challenge to minimize risk while still learning to trade. This group's advocacy is super! They wanted to help traders for free. Absolutely free. A few words from Ms. GandaKo or Nadie Importante, the leader of Trader's Lounge.

"Everything I do is for free. I was once a newbie. I went to a whole lot of depression and crying my first three years due to losses and someone helped me out for free. So everything I do now is me paying it forward," GandaKo wrote on her FB post.

So, if you wanted to learn for free and know the gruesome truth about stocks trading... Go and join the group. Below are the links.

Although I lost 30% of my portfolio in return I learned the following so far from my own research, readings, and learnings from Trader's Lounge.

Risk management.
Solid trading system.
Trading strategies.
Trading Psychology.
Indicators.
Patterns.
Time Frames.

I'm looking forward to the year 2020 to somehow start getting profitable on my trades and in the same manner that I'm optimistic that the stock market will get better.

I also created a YouTube channel so that I can share charts of my every trade. Win or Loss trades I will be sharing. I assure you. Unlike those mentors, gurus luring newbie traders to their paid seminars only showed the winning side of their trades.

Lastly, in this coming new year, my focus would be the following:

Trusting the system I learned.
Fine-tuning execution, with the goal to eliminate emotion.
Backtesting, forward testing, screening.
Risk management first.

Merry Christmas and a happy new year!

IPO's dirty little secret

Rey Tecson Stock Trading ,

Below is a reblog from Gandakoh's article:
"IPO is the initial public… you know what, if you are a trader I don’t need to explain to you what an IPO is. If you don’t know what an IPO is then this post is not for you. Go to google. Research what an IPO is and come back to my post.

When you hear the word “IPO” what comes into your mind? Stories about how if you invested in URC at few pesos it is now one hundred plus. Stories that you could double or triple your money in a few days after an IPO. Well, it's true. There are some stocks that went from 2 pesos per share to hundreds. Take for example HVN. The IPO price is somewhere above ten pesos. Its 10.5 pesos I believe. It was 10.5 pesos per share three years ago and now it's over 400 pesos. Imagine how many luxury cars or houses on hills you could have owned if you invested 500 thousand pesos on it. (this was an actual line a stockbroker friend of mine told his client) These things do exist but think about it like this. Take, for example, Manny Pacquiao. 8-division world champion. A billionaire. He became rich from boxing. For every one Manny Pacquiao there are maybe 400 boxers who are broke or never made it in boxing. It may not only be 400, but it may also be more. So, in every successful IPO stories written or you have heard, there are a lot of unsuccessful ones. Chp debut at 10.75 and now priced under 3 pesos. Dmw, mrsgi…there are just too many…

Take a look at these charts. These are what we had this year alone.

But of course there is KPPI this year.

For some strange reason, many investors line-up to buy IPO’s. Di makatulog kakahintay makakuha ng shares. Alam ba talaga nila binibili nila?

Maraming negosyo ang nangangailangan ng pondo para lalong lumago. Ayaw nila sa bank dahil sa interest rates at mas ninanais na mag IPO sa PSE. First time na e bebenta nila sa publiko ang parte ng kumpanya nila which are called shares and marami naman ang excited makakuha ng shares ng mga kumpanya na yun na mga traders.

But, think about why a company would want to go from private to public. Why would they do that?“Going public involves a mountain of paperwork, auditing, and ongoing reporting requirements. And that’s not even including the millions of pesos it takes to go through the whole process.

So, why would a company go through all of that trouble? If a company is successful, it probably means that everyone within the company is making money, right? Why would they want to sell off part of their business to the public? Well, there are a variety of reasons. The major reason is so the company can get liquidity… or rather, so the early company founders and investors can get liquidity” -Cody Shirk

“…the basic business of finance is buying low and selling high, and it is sometimes hard to resist the secondary cynical explanation for going public, which is that you do an IPO to top-tick the market for your stock and sell at the very high point of hype.” -Bloomberg

Think about that for a second, if you are buying an IPO. As an investor, you are literally putting money into the pockets of those early founders and investors.

That isn’t always a bad thing. There are many, many companies that have gone on to be very successful after their IPO. Investors who bought those companies are very happy, as those stock prices have continued to go up.

But, there is another side. How do you know why a company is going public? Is it so they can get more capital into the business so they can continue to expand? Or is it because they are simply trying to cash out at the public’s expense?

IPOs are usually seen as (or made to look like) a great way to make windfall gains in a short period of time. The steps are very simple:

Buy stocks in an IPO.
Wait for the listing day.
Those who missed the IPO would rush to get their hands on the “hottest stock” in the market.
You sell your holding to them on the day of listing and make windfall gains. Simple, right?

According to Mr shrivastav, IPO is always a bad investment. Here is why:

Firstly,there is always a conflict of interest between sellers of IPO, and buyers of an IPO.

An investor make profit when it buys stock at cheaper valuation and sell when valuations are fair or expensive.

On the other hand, when a company comes with an IPO, it wants highest valuation for the IPO so that they are able to raise maximum capital for the shares issued.

So there is a clear conflict of interest between the IPO issuers and subscribers.

If the issuer sells the IPO at highest valuation, it will be a great disadvantage for a buyer. Since issuers have the pricing power during the IPO, there is no way a subscriber can negotiate (the only way is to let the company get listed and wait for the prices to decline till they reach reasonable valuations)

Secondly. Company owners have much better insight of the real valuation, as they are the insiders, and they can manipulate the numbers and draft the prospectus to paint a rosy picture about the company.

On the other hand, since a subscriber has little to almost no information about the company’s real valuation, he has no other way but to rely on the prospectus, and financial statements of the company which are mostly window dressed. This again puts subscribers at real disadvantage, which means the game is already rigged in favor of issuers.

Finally, IPOs are never bought, they are always sold. and most of them take advantage of the market sentiment and time their issues when positive sentiments in the market are at its peak and people are willing to buy anything for any price, expecting to make windfall gains, without looking at the valuations.

No wonder why you will find a plethora of IPOs in a bull market and fewer in a bear market."

You may read the original article here: https://gandakohpersonaltrading.home.blog/2019/12/06/ipos-dirty-little-secret/

I've been trapped and was able to get out at three instances participating in an IPO.

First was AXLM, I bought an IPO, the price plummeted during the listing day, able to exit at a minimal loss. My emotions kicked in, re-entry at a lower price but then again it plummeted at a lower price and so ipit for how many days, till I cut my losses. Then the price went south again.

The second was HOME. So far, I'm good, no big losses at this time but the hovered within the IPO price. Time-wise! I can say naipit pa din.

Third was FRUIT. I did not buy at IPO price. No plans for buying really. But saw the price rose to the skies during noon market break. Greed kicked in, bought at a high price, unable to get out immediately. I cut my losses too far south. Revenge trade bought again at a lower price, but then again the price dived down south. So, ipit till now.

With the above Ms. Ganda Koh's article, I think it's clear. I just outright avoid IPO from now on.

Cropital reinvestment update

Rey Tecson Investing ,

Kumustamos mga kababayang OFWs. The below video is an update to my Cropital capital reinvestment.

Five Reasons why I got big losses on my trades

Rey Tecson Stock Trading ,

I reviewed all of my losing trades. I focus on my biggest loser each month from April to September 2019. The following are the reasons why:

1. No specific trading system

This is the main reason for the month of April and May for my big losing trade. These were the months where I'm still testing almost all indicators that I know from the books I read. I still have no concrete trading system. I just simply put a cut loss point and bought small positions. Naturally, my entries were wrong leading to cut losses as my cut point was hit. The moment I vacillate (in cutting losses) this leads to bigger losses.

2. Not respecting cut loss point

Obviously, the moment I disrespected my cut loss point -- the bigger the losses. Most of the time, the price of my stocks did not go back up. The worse thing is that if it goes back up, it somehow justifies why I disrespect my cut point. The next time I disrespected my cut loss point -- and the price did not go back up -- sigurado na mapapacut ako sa mas malaking lugi na.

3. Impulsive buying

This happens when I keep on watching those stocks that move higher during the trading hours. The tendency is I bought it at a higher price mostly in the morning. Then the price moved to the opposite direction or just a simple pullback which is supposed to be the ideal buy point -- it is when I cut -- only to see it moved back up. Aray ko po!

4. Ignoring the allowed position sizing against portfolio size (poor risk management)

Whe I impulsively buy stocks, the position allocation also is neglected. This is the worse thing I did to my account. This is fatal especially if combined with ignoring cut loss points.

5. Lack of focus during the trading day

I'm a person that can not focus on one single thing. I have the habit of doing certain things while doing another thing in the middle of it. It is a habit I somehow adapted from my work -- multi-tasking. I think I need to focus and do nothing during trading hours -- which is next to impossible because I have a day job. Maybe a system that lets me buy EOD and sell positions before I go to work?

Book bundle:

The latest update on my stocks trading journey

Rey Tecson Stock Trading ,

Time flies.

The last update I made on this blog was on May 2019.

Well, I would like to update regarding my progress with the journey I embarked from April 2019 – stocks trading.

Here’s the summary:

April 2019 – Loss

I lost 0.6% of my portfolio.
It was a very minimal loss as traded conservatively.
I’m still learning by reading a variety of books about stock trading.
I traded conservatively as I still have very limited knowledge.

May 2019 – Loss

I lost another 3.52% of my portfolio.
Total accumulated loss is now 4.12%.
I traded heavily as I wanted to apply what I learned from the various stocks trading books I read. I have also enough time due to shortened work timings during the month of Ramadan.
I completed around 22 trades. I realized that the broker was the winner in this case. Without the broker’s commission – the outcome should have been break-even. Well, this is minus some game.
I have no concrete system yet. I used every indicator that I understood from what I read. I mostly used, moving averages, MACD, RSI and support/resistance.

June – Insignificant gain.

I adjusted and corrected the mistakes I made during the month of May.
I no longer trade heavily.
I applied strictly also what I learned about size allocation based on portfolio size.
I only allowed 1% of my portfolio, as a general rule, to risk per trade.
Although I have not found a concrete trading system that will work for me, I'm surprised at the improvement I made.

July 2019 -- Another loss.

Since I did not found yet a trading system or trading set-up that works for me, my batting average was very low at 20%. I lost 8 out of 10 trades.
I violated also another cardinal rule by not respecting my cut loss point. Dr. Alexander Elder wrote on his book The New Trading for A Living -- "A trader is the weakest link in any trading system." I really believe in this. It is useless to have a rule that you don't respect. It is really hard to police your own self. I need to improve in this area.
In the next month, my plan is to adhere to my cut loss point and backtest a system that seemed to work out for me - the triple screen trading system and the system being taught by a very generous trader at Trader's Lounge- Ms. Gandah Ko. Salamat po sa mga taga Trader's Lounge lalo na po kay Ms. Gandah Ko for advocating free learning. My salute po.

August 2019 - A minimal loss.

After backtesting and the above-mentioned systems, my gain percentage improved. However, my greatest enemy was myself. It's really hard to conquer yourself. Just one trade that I disrespected my cut loss point -- the end result was a net loss for this month.
Respect your cut loss point. Respect your cut point. Respect your cut loss point.
Respect your cut loss point. Respect your cut point. Respect your cut loss point.
Respect your cut loss point. Respect your cut point. Respect your cut loss point.
Respect your cut loss point. Respect your cut point. Respect your cut loss point.
Respect your cut loss point. Respect your cut point. Respect your cut loss point.
Damn! I really need to hammer my head to put this in my mind down to my fingers to execute the sell button when cut loss point is hit.

September 2019 - Still a loss?

Well yeah, it's still a loss.
I respected my cut loss point.
I followed the system.
But it seemed the market was very difficult. I mean, I don't know about the veteran traders, maybe they're still profitable.
I don't want really to put a lot of weight regarding news about "trade war" or "instability in the Middle East" because I relied on the chart alone. Ganoon daw dapat pag chartist/trader eh.
But the setups are there but it doesn't materialize. If it materializes naman, you have to sell with minimal gain because the set up says so.

Let's see po what's ahead of me this October 2019. Sana naman makabawi. My accumulated percentage loss is somehow alarming na.

On my next post, I will share the outcome of my first ever IPO participation. I will detail the experience po.

Sa mga vets dyan. Mag advice naman kayo sa comment section kung saan ako pwede mag improve. Thanks.

Journal 007: Breakout Trade -- SMPH

Rey Tecson Stock Trading ,

Well, I position SMPH as it passed the eight criteria I'm looking from a company before purchase.

Result:

Entry: 41.2

Stop Loss: 39.5
Exit: 41.7 at a very minimal loss.

30 April 2019

I initially asked a price at 41.0 level but at the time there was a surge of the stock price. I told to myself that this is it! The breakout!!! But not able to hit my asking price as the price move up quickly.
So, I adjusted it to 41.2 and the trade was executed at 10:24 AM.
Then the seller dominated a bit and the price moved back down to its opening price.
During the closing part of the trading day, the price rallied a little bit and closes strong at 41.45. It is the strongest stock I purchased to this date.

2 May 2019.

The stock closed @ 41.8 which was above the previous price. The high at this date was @ 42.5. I'm very optimistic the price would go higher.
The volume indicators were strong still. One thing I'm not comfortable at; still the 1Q2019 report was still not out.

3 May 2019.

The sellers showed up at this date and a lot of profit-taking going on.
I thought the buyers will come back strong at the closing.
Things went ugly as the strength indicators went down. So, I exited even before it hits my stop at a very minimal loss.

Takeaways:

If I hesitated at the very first sign of price weakness, I should have more amount of losses right now.
So far at the current price, I'm still yet to be knockout by SMPH.
I expect a bounce at or before the support price level, near my stop loss at 40.5.
Depending on the 1Q2019 report, the price movement could be up or down. I expected a good quarter report as the annual report was good.
I'm just comfortable without the position before the report is out.
Anyhow, I'm still willing to enter into position when buyers turn up again. Let's see during my next update.

Journal 006: Breakout Trade -- ALI

Rey Tecson

I considered buying ALI because it has the data I needed and it matches the criteria I'm looking for a stock.

This is as per stock criteria of the book Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard by Mark Minervini.

1. The stock price is above both the 150-day (30-week) and the 200-day (40-week) moving average price lines.
2. The 150-day MA is above the 200-day MA.
3. The 200-day MA must be trending for at least 1 month.
4. The 50-day MA must be above the 150 and 200 MA.
5. The current stock is at least 25% above its 52-week low.
6. The current stock price is within at least 25% of its 52-week high.
7. The relative strength is no less than 70 and preferably in the 90.
8. Current price is trading above the 50-day moving average as the stock is coming out of a base.

9. It has built three bases and the volume is good.

17 April 2019

I bought my initial position the stock at 47.
Set my Stop Loss at 45.2.
Although I think the correct buy point must be above the short term resistance at 48.05, I bought anyway as it is confirmed that the price is breaking out from its consolidation price range.

22&23 April 2019

A bullish candle but indecisive appeared. Three candles almost closed at the same price levels--sideways.

24 April 2019

The price gaps up a little bit. I bought my second position at 47.9.
Raised my Stop Loss to 47.0.
Break even at 48.2.
The price closes at 48.

25 April 2019

The price went all the way up to 49.5 at the closing price. I'm very optimistic of a strong follow through the f
I'm planning to add my exposure on the next trading day.
The volume of buyers is still available.

26 April 2019

Resistance at 49.55.
Most of the trading day is a standoff price at 49.
At the end of the trading day, massive sellers came in.
Block sale recorded.
I sold all my position at 48.5 and move on to the next trade.

Result:

Entry1: 47.0

Stop Loss: 45.2

Entry2: 47.9

Raised Stop Loss: 47

Sold: 48.5 at a very small profit.

Takeaways

I'm very optimistic that the price will move up even more.
I realize that the run was pretty high already. Price is king. So be it.
I hope this is just a small pullback, but I saw massive selling conviction. That's why I sold it.
Fear struck me. I don't want to turn this trade into a loss so I sold it.
In the hindsight, if this is really just a normal pullback price action then I think I'm selling it to early and not sticking to my stop loss at 47. I already raised my stop loss at 47.0, but I didn't wait for that to come and settled on a very small profit. Well, let see in the coming days what really will happen. I will post an update to see if I made a mistake of selling it too soon. And not letting the stock kick me out by hitting my stop loss. Or at the very least sold half of the position. Anyway, let's see.
On 26 April 2019, it was the day when ALI announced that they will offer REIT. The first of its kind in the Philippines since the law was passed in 2009. It sounds to me a piece of good news for ALI, but I don't know why there was a massive selloff on the same day. Well maybe because it is a Friday so those who bought the stock at the support level took some profit for the weekend. But there was a block sell also.

Update:

4 May 2019

If I did not exit @ 48.5 price and stuck to my stop loss @ 45.2, I'm still invested right now and not yet knock out by ALI.
I realize that my stop loss should have been at near support @ 46.68 rather than @ 45.2.
It seemed that I developed a style, which I felt comfortable; not holding a stock too long. Just held a stock for a day or two after purchase and not keeping it during the weekend, especially those stocks that not yet reported the 1Q2019 report. It seemed I'm okay with this style.
ALI's RSI direction is going down now @50, the Price Volume Trend is also going to downward trend.
I think ALI will bounce at it support @46.68. Let's see after a couple of days.

Cutting losses, clearing previous mistakes

Rey Tecson Stock Trading ,

As a process of my complete paradigm shift, from long term investor to stock trading, I cut one of my losing positions. These losing positions were a product of uninformed buying decision.

I began cutting my losses starting with TKC Metals. I bought this stock, I think in early 2016 in anticipation of the "Build, Build, Build" program of the Philippine government. My conviction is that the construction sector, especially the Construction, Infra. & Allied Services subsector will boom. It was entirely my opinion.

Well, your personal opinion with the market will really cost you money in the long run as per Mark Minervini, author of the book "Think & Trade Like a Champion". My opinion really did cost me. Not able to examine thoroughly the fundamentals, I invested blindly thinking that the construction sector will move. From 2016 till us of this writing, my position never changes its color from red to green. The worst thing is I did cost averaging as the stock plummeted.

Okay then, enough is enough. It's time to put ego aside. I made a mistake. I admit it. Cut my losses and then move on.

One mistake cleared. Let's move on to the next one soon.

Journal 004: Learn the hard way -- NOW

Rey Tecson Stock Trading ,

Momentum trade - Intraday
Stock: NOW
Entry: 2.7
Exit: 2.6
Result: Loss

As I mentioned in my previous post, I tried intraday again. The same trigger---greed. This time, I was stopped out.

They said that experience is the best teacher--indeed it is. I promised not to do it again because as I learned previously that intraday doesn't suit me as it drives all the emotions from me.

Well, the lesson learned last time doesn't bite me because I won that particular trade. This time, I lost. So, promise, I will not do it again. No intraday. Hindi ko kaya ang nag uumapaw na emotion dito.

So EOD daw nararapat para sa akin. Let me try to do that. Anyway, here' what happened with NOW.

The same story, NOW ticker was popping in yellow color. Greed sits in. Enter the trade, not knowing it was the peak. After I entered, the price went down. Boom! Hit my stop loss. I sold it at 5% loss. 1.25% loss total Port in less than 60 mins.

Takeaways:

The bad.

Should follow the takeaways mentioned previously.
Avoid entering a trade without the risk/reward ratio assessment. Reward should be higher than risk.
Wag na kasi sa intraday.

The good.

Ayaw na talaga intraday. Aralin ang EOD.
I can say that cutting losses is now natural to me. No questions ask pag na hit ang SL tira na agad and move on.
I bought more books to study more on technical analysis, chart patterns, and setup.
I religiously review stock now based on the eight criteria and look for EOD suitable stocks.

I have already two more stocks under my position, which I feel comfortable dealing with. I just look at the end of the trading day and see what happens to the stock price. Although in the middle, I need to check if the stock price got near my stop loss. If the price is moving up, I just look at the closing price later during the day. These two stocks have no DNA of gapping down and not very volatile.

So, I think these type of stocks suits for EOD, what I'm monitoring now is the time frame. For how long it will go up. Is it worth the wait? Or do I need to sell and look for another opportunity? Anyway, I will post here after I exit each trade. My journal, of course, is from hindsight. No live feed here.

So far the general market is down, so, I don't want to trade nowadays. I will wait till the general market moves up. Just monitoring these two stocks I mentioned earlier. BTW, I came back from vacation and is now back to work. So, I need to check how my trading jives my day job.

I will utilize this time to read more books. Here are my new collections. I will tell you more about these books after I finished reading them.

Journal 003: Riding a Momentum -- IRC

Rey Tecson Stock Trading ,

Momentum trade: Intraday
Stock: IRC
Entry: 1.88
Exit: 1.92
Result: Win

While searching and shortlisting for stocks that qualify to the eight criteria mentioned in the book "Think & Trade Like a Champion" while the market was open I noticed IRC popping up on my watcher board at Investagrams. So it caught my attention. That was on 16 April 2019.

I'm somewhat bored actually, from reviewing charts and companies that would fit the criteria. I'm very eager to enter the market at that time to really get my hands dirty, learn from actual trading.

The price of IRC was moving up at a fast pace. So I got curious and greed sits in. I wanted to ride the momentum of IRC. A quick plan developed in my head. I said to myself, I'll enter and exit right away. But I know this trade is fundamentally triggered by greed. I had no set-up whatsoever to at least spot a stock prior to its fast move.

Well, as greed sits in, I entered IRC with only a stop loss in my mind at 5%. At 1.88 I entered the trade hoping the price will continue to move up. I observed the price action and volume after I entered. Based on volume, I felt that this price will never go up any further as I entered somewhere at the peak already. So I watched carefully at a 3-minute chart time frame. Fear started to sit in. I didn't wait till my cut loss hit. I sold it at 1.92 at a very small profit (less than 1%). I managed to get out unscathed but that was too risky.

My takeaways on this trade:

I will never do it again -- impulsive trading.
If I will do intraday or riding some stocks momentum, I should condition my mind that this is what I'm going to do this particular trading day.
I was able to establish my cut loss price, which is good before I decided to trade. This is the discipline I wanted to develop in me even by doing this impulsive move.
The risk is really high compared to reward in this type of move that I did.
It seemed Intraday not suits me. I'm very emotional, the entry was triggered by greed. The exit was triggered by fear although I considered the volume of sellers as my deciding factor during my exit.
I still need to find the right setup type of trading that suits me. A trading time frame that will not hamper my day job and the time difference between the Philippines and Kuwait should not be a problem. EOD comes to mind. But I still need to learn and read about EOD trading style.
Next trade: Hint -- it was careless intraday trading again. This time I learned my lesson the hard way.

Journal 002: Wrong set-up -- URC

Rey Tecson Stock Trading ,

Breakout trade
Stock: URC
Entry: 159.6
Exit: 154
Result: Loss

Further to my study about stock trading, I read about Darvas Box and tried to use this set-up but I think I used it wrong.

So my bias is that It will break out at the second box that I plotted (see above). But It went against me.

With what I learned from reading the book "Think & Trade Like a Champion" by Mark Minervini, the good thing is applied what I've learned from the book. At least the rule of setting up stop loss before entering the trade.

So, with the above Darvas plotting and the 20, 50 and 200 MA I entered the trade @ 159.6 and set a 4.66 % stop loss at 154.

Well, as I said, I think the setup was wrong. As I look at it now, It seemed that URC has finished the one month upward run and in on its way to reverse the trend the day I entered. Glad about the stop loss and the discipline I learned from the book. I pull the plug without hesitation and learned from my first losing trade.

My takeaways on this trade.

The book also told about stock selection process and criteria but was not able to use it religiously. The book mentioned about 8 criteria to consider before buying a stock. Next trade, I'll focus on those 8 criteria.
I'll study more about the right execution of Darvas.
I studied also about the Fibonacci retracement and it seemed I can still consider URC on a bounce as it hit now the 50%. I just don't know. Anyway, madami pang kakaining bigas. Aral pa ulit.
Next trade hint: I tried intraday and caught a stock that was surging up and ride the momentum.

Journal 001: My first trade -- JFC

Rey Tecson Stock Trading ,

Position trading: EOD
Stock: JFC
Entry: 250
Exit: 322.6
Holding Period: 8 Months
Result: Win

As part of my shift to become a stock market trader from being an investor, I started looking at my current stock positions. The first I look into consideration was JFC (Jollibee). I bought the stock in July 2018 with the mindset of an investor. I decided to invest my hard earn money at JFC considering the criteria that it is a blue chip stock and that's it. I'm optimistic that it will grow over time.

Well, it just happened that I bought JFC at the time that it was near its bottom price. Honestly, that was pure luck because, at that time, I really don't have any idea about any indicators of a reversal. Reversal is the shift from one trend to the other. I didn't study anything yet about technical analysis let alone how to read a chart.

So, my entry at JFC was really pure luck and based on one criterion that the stock is a blue chip.

I bought JFC and forget about it.

Luckily, JFC was on the brink of reversal and the price started to go up the following day I bought it and skyrocketed from 250 to as high as 292 on 3 August 2018.

Pure luck. I just got lucky.

However, on 8 October 2018, the price plummeted to as low as 242.89. But I don't care. Naaaaa! I'm an investor yah! It was 4% down from the price I purchased it at 250 per share. Well, it really bounced back and went up to 324 on 4 January 2019. I'm a very happy investor.

All percentages I mentioned are the net percentage as I used a COL Financial buy and sell Android application that includes the brokerage commission on buy and sell.

In February 2019, I started my focus on learning about chart reading. At that time, I am not decided yet to become a stock trader. I'm curious about chart patterns and then, later on, learned that there are certain chart patterns that could signal a shift in trend. Eventually, on 1 March 2019 I decided that I will try stock trading.

So I tried to examine JFC price action using what I learned from my reading. Jan and Feb JFC price went sideways. It is consolidating and I'm observing the chart pattern taking into consideration what I just learned. I'm looking for a pattern that will tell me that the stock will breakdown or breakout.

Well, as far as my learning is concern, a chart pattern showed that the price will possibly go down trending. So I sold it at 322.6 on 11 April 2019. A 22% upside.

But by reading further, told me that I should wait for confirmation at least one more trading day if indeed the price will go down. I told to myself what if the price will go up even higher tomorrow?

However, the price indeed went down the following day. Till this writing, the price was going down and the price closed today at 302.20.

My takeaways in this trade:

I know, I was lucky at the entry. I should read more about the correct entry.
My strategy is not yet developed.
The exit was not correct also. I need to have confirmation if indeed it is a sell signal or not.
Need to check my time frame as a trader. 22% percent upside in 8 months? Is it okay?

Madami pang kakaining bigas.
I purchased my first book related to stocks trading titled -- "Think & Trade Like a Champion" by Mark Minervini. You will learn a lot and will change your perception about the dangers of stock trading.

The day I decided to become a stock market trader

Rey Tecson Stock Trading ,

On 1st March 2019, I decided to become a stock market trader. Hence, shifting my paradigm from being a stock market investor to become a stock trader. I will journal in this blog my stock trading journey.

I've got my online COL Financial account opened in 2015. It was the year that God gave me the opportunity to participate in the Philippine Stock Market. The opportunity was given to me thru OFSI. For those who followed this humble blog, OFSI is familiar to you already. For starters, you may click this link to know more about OFSI --- http://www.ofsi.ph/

OFSI opened my eyes to look for opportunities around us that will help us achieve financial independence. Together with my friend, Don Juan of Tabang Pinoy and DCS Store, we explored a lot of business ideas. Don Juan was the person who introduced me to OFSI. It was OFSI who opened our eyes to find ways, ideas to achieve financial independence. Don Juan was able to establish DCS Store and still exploring other viable opportunities.

I explored business opportunities to my native place in Mindanao. There was a lot of business potential there, but it required my full time and physically be there to manage it.

It will be a huge gamble to let go of my job here in Kuwait to pursue something you may or may not be able to sustain in the long run. Hence, I look for other business models/platform that can be done as a side hustle wherein I can utilize resources at hand, like internet based business opportunities.

I have passion also for writing and boxing. These two things I've got passionate into, I was able to club together. Hence, the creation of a website called The Boxing Diary. This website provided me with some passive income thru Adsense. I ventured also to crowdfunding platforms such as Cropital and FundKo wherein I lend my money to Pinoy farmers and borrowers. It's one way of helping them finance farmer's capital and borrower's need. In return, I will be able to get back my capital and some little returns in a form of interest.

The above of course could help achieve my goal to attain financial independence and ultimately retire rich, but it is not enough.

Here comes the opportunity to realize my goal thru the stock market. I started investing in the stock market in 2015. The reward is sky high, so as the risk along with it. So far, I learned that there are two types of players present in the stock market. The investors and traders. The investors are looking at the fundamental aspect of a company/stock and invest fundamentally rock solid/blue chip stocks, and undervalued stocks and then profit from it as the stock price goes up in the long term.

The traders, on the other hand, are looking at technical analysis (as a priority) and goes in and out of position in the stock market in the short term. Sounds like a quick rich scheme. But it is not. It requires discipline more than knowledge.

Well, what I know, if I become a profitable trader, I could eventually realize my dream to retire rich from working as an OFW in a shorter period compared to investing.

So, I decided to shift from being an investor to become a trader. This is easier said than done. I know. So I'll share this journey to you in the form of a journal. So guys, wish me luck!

I accept and embrace that trading is not all about winning all the trade but you win some and lose some. But I read from a respectable author that says, "cut losses short and let winners run.

My next post will be the journal of my first trade. Hint, it was a profit from JFC.

PSEi to head higher -- Fund Managers

Rey Tecson Investing ,

I received an email coming from COL's Experts Corner about what the Fund Managers insights and outlook on the PSEi this year. I believed all COL account holders may have received the same email.

Well, I would like to share this email to those who will happen to stumble upon this blog -- especially the OFWs and basically those who are based in Kuwait but yet to invest in the stock market.

Below were the Fund Managers words:

"We expect 2019 to be a turnaround year… Inflation has finally been contained... Our year-end fair value for the PSEi is 8,400. If the trade war is finally resolved, we may overshoot this.”

Wilson Sy

Fund Manager, Philequity Management

“We begin the year bullish on equities… We believe that investors will prefer economies that will show higher growth for 2019, which may lead to funds flowing back to emerging markets… Our bull case scenario for the PSEi is 8,776.”

Maria Cristina Gabaldon

Head of Equities, Sun Life Asset Management

“We remain cautiously optimistic on a mild recovery for the PSE… While we are off to a strong start once again, the opportunities are there should we see weakness in the market.”

Martin Enrile

Chief Investment Officer, BPI Investment Management (ALFM)

“FAMI sees opportunities in a market characterized by heightened volatility… Our 2019 investment strategy will position FAMI funds to be resilient to risks.”

John Robert Maniego

Fund Manager, First Metro Asset Management

“We remain optimistic on Philippine stocks for 2019… Our base expectation is for the PSEi to reach the 8,500-point level in 2019 (17.5x P/E ratio) and to continue its course to hit 10,000 points by 2021.”

Phillip Hagedorn

Chief Investment Officer, ATRAM Group

“2019 seems to be a year of recovery and an almost sure bet that it would be a better year than 2018… We look at the PSEi level to be around 8,100 for the year, or about an 8.5% upside.”

Reginald Candelaria

Head of Equities, Philam Asset Management

Now for starters here, you would probably ask how to invest in the Philippine stock market?

Well, I have created a 3-minute clip below regarding the announcement of OFSI (Overseas Filipino Smart Investors) seminar. The seminar aims to provide a guide, advice on how to manage your personal finance. The seminar highlights how to invest in the Philippine Stock Marker (PSE).

So guys if you are interested in this limited opportunity, you may register by clicking the link provided on the description of the below video.

Tuesday, December 31

Saturday, December 28

Wednesday, December 25

Saturday, December 7

Thursday, October 10

1. No specific trading system

2. Not respecting cut loss point

3. Impulsive buying

4. Ignoring the allowed position sizing against portfolio size (poor risk management)

5. Lack of focus during the trading day

Wednesday, October 9

April 2019 – Loss

May 2019 – Loss

June – Insignificant gain.

July 2019 -- Another loss.

August 2019 - A minimal loss.

September 2019 - Still a loss?

Saturday, May 4

Result:

30 April 2019

2 May 2019.

3 May 2019.

Takeaways:

Tuesday, April 30

17 April 2019

22&23 April 2019

24 April 2019

25 April 2019

26 April 2019

Result:

Takeaways

Update:

4 May 2019

Wednesday, April 24

Tuesday, April 23

Saturday, January 19

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